The future of Affirmative Action

The supreme court will hear two cases against affirmative action in 2023: Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina.

The supreme court has upheld affirmative action for over 30 years. In the majority opinion of Grutter v. Bollinger, Sandra Day O’Connor said the constitution “does not prohibit the law school's narrowly tailored use of race in admissions decisions to further a compelling interest in obtaining the educational benefits that flow from a diverse student body”.

On the other hand, conservative justices would say the Civil Rights Act prohibits discrimination based on race in any program receiving federal funds. The Fourteenth Amendment decrees that “no State shall […] deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.” Therefore, considering race in college admissions would be unconstitutional.

With the Trump appointments of Niel Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett the court has a solid 6-3 conservative majority. All of these conservative judges will likely vote against affirmative action. Many of the sitting judges also hold strong views against affirmative action. 

Chief Justice Roberts: "The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race."

Clarence Thomas: “In my mind, government-sponsored racial discrimination based on benign prejudice is just as noxious as discrimination inspired by malicious prejudice.” — opinion in Adarand Constructors v. Pena

Samuel Alito: “When UT decided to adopt its race-conscious plan, it had every reason to know that its plan would have to satisfy strict scrutiny and that this meant that it would be its burden to show that the plan was narrowly tailored to serve compelling interests,” Alito wrote in a dissent. “UT has failed to make that showing.”

My Prediction: 80% chance that the supreme court will ban the use of race as a factor in college admissions by the end of 2023. 

What will happen as a result? 

Elite schools private schools(Ivy League, MIT, Stanford) 

At the elite schools private schools nothing much will happen. Every year the percentage of underrepresented minorities has been increasing. This year Harvard admitted a record number of African Americans making up 18 percent of admits, a significant increase from the 14.8 percent of the previous class. After the Black Lives Matter movement and George Floyd protests white liberals, who make up the vast majority of college administrators and admissions officers, have become much more “woke”. Additionally, elite colleges have strong emphasis on social justice and helping historically disadvantaged communities. 

As a result, it seems like the test optional policies instituted during the covid 19 pandemic will stay permanent. Harvard is extending its standardized testing policy through the 2023-2026 application cycles, and will likely continue this policy indefinitely. The cited reason is that poorer students and students of color do not have the same access to test prep as other students. 

The removal of standardized testing will make the college admissions process much more subjective, giving more power to admissions officers to make decisions based on extracurriculars and essays. An African American high school student activist fighting for voting rights probably won’t need to submit standardized test scores. On the other hand, an “average excellent” white or asian applicant who has great test scores will be hurt by this system. Underrepresented minorities with on average lower test scores will benefit. 

Additionally, the elite university presidents are pretty smart dudes. They will adjust their admissions process to favor underrepresented minorities, and make their process more opaque, making it hard to get caught. Instead of explicitly using race, I predict college admissions officers will use your essays, extracurricular activities, and high school demographics to determine your racial profile, and give boosts to underrepresented minorities through the personal rating. For example, the president of the Black Student Union would get a large personal rating boost. College admissions officers are some of the most progressive people in the United States, and will continue to give boosts to underrepresented minorities through other means such as the personal rating, even if affirmative action is not allowed. 

My prediction(70% chance): During the application cycle of  2024-2025, the admitted class at Harvard University will stay between 12% and 18% African American. 

Elite State Schools(Georgia Tech, UNC, UVA) 

In the elite state schools there will be a dramatic decrease in the enrollment of underrepresented minority students. When California banned affirmative action there were about 50% decreases in underrepresented minority enrollment at UC Berkeley. 

From NY Times

Unlike elite private schools, elite state schools are keeping tests mandatory. Georgia Tech has already removed its test optional policy, and UNC will remove it next year. Underrepresented minorities with lower average SAT scores will have a much tougher time getting into these schools. 

My prediction(65% chance): During the application cycle of  2024-2025, Underrepresented minority enrollment at Elite State Schools(Top 15 US NEWS State Schools) such as Georgia Tech UNC and UVA will drop by between 25% and 50%. 

Conclusion

The Supreme Court will likely declare affirmative action unconstitutional; however, I doubt this will meaningly change the composition of elite private universities such as Harvard, Stanford, and Yale. For “public ivies” the enrollment of minorities will likely sharply drop. Only when elite college presidents, bureaucrats, and admissions officers want to change affirmative action will it change.

Addendum: Implications for individual High School Applicants

You weren’t going to get into Harvard anyway with or without affirmative action. 

If preferences were removed for underrepresented minorities at Harvard according to model: 

The admit probability for white students would go from about 3.9% to 4.8% 

The admit probability for asian students would go from about 2.5% to 3.3%

Barely any difference. Similar analyses work for all elite schools. Affirmative action marginally affects your admit chance at elite schools. 

Here’s the math: 

There were 57,435 applicants to Harvard in 2021, and 2047 enrolled students. There was a yield rate of 85%, so 2408 students were given acceptances. 

If hypothetically the percentage of African Americans went from 18% to 8%, and the percentage of hispanic students dropped from 13.3% to 5% there would be about 370 extra spots for white and asian students. Let us assume that the percent of asian admits would increase from 27.2% to 34.5% and the percent of white admits would increase from 39.7% to 49.7%. 

Using the datasets released during the Harvard lawsuit, historically 20% of applicants are asian and 43% are white. Therefore:

The admit probability for white students would go from about 3.9% to 4.8% 

The admit probability for asian students would go from about 2.5% to 3.3%

Admit probability: (2408 * percent of admits of race)/ (57,435 * percent applications of race).